My Huntsville about.com Weekend Forecast

On the weather map...Friday looks cool but dry. A small disturbance will move in for Friday & Saturday...bringing clouds and perhaps a few showers. Neither day looks like a washout. But highs those days will not reach 60 degrees. An early look at Thanksgiving...looks dry for now but looking cold as well. It's over a week away so things can change...

My official Tennessee Valley weekend forecast...

For Friday...Mostly sunny. High 63.
Friday Night...Increasing clouds. Low 42.
Saturday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High 58.
Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy. A 30% chance of showers. Low 48.
Sunday...Mostly cloudy. A 30% chance of showers. High 57.

Football forecast...

Chattanooga at Alabama (11:21 am CT - Tuscaloosa, AL)...It will be cloudy with a chance of showers during the game. Kickoff temperature will be around 55 degrees.

Auburn is off this week getting ready for next week's Iron Bowl.

Mississippi Valley St. at Alabama A&M (1:00 pm CT - Huntsville, AL)...It will be cloudy with a chance of showers during the game. Kickoff temperature will be around the expected high for the day of 58 degrees.

Last week's question...A major weather event occurred in Huntsville twenty years ago on Sunday, November 15. What happened on that day? Of course the answer was B. tornado. We did a four-part look back of that terrible day over on the blog. Feel free to drop by & have a read. The address is at the bottom of the forecast.

The all-time record low for the month of November occurred November 25, 1950. It is also the only time in the month in Huntsville is had dropped to below 10 degrees. How far did the mercury plummet that morning?

A. 1 degree
B. 3 degrees
C. 5 degrees
D. 8 degrees

Have a great weekend everyone!!!

- James Payton
Huntsville about.com Forecaster
http://uahweather.blogspot.com
http://twitter.com/weatherjames

November 15, 1989 Huntsville Tornado - A Look Back - Conclusion

On the morning of Thursday November, 16...the city began the recovery for the blow the tornado left behind. Cold & wind chill were main factors...but snow began to fall by late morning as well. It did briefly accumulate before moving out.

In the weeks after the tornado, several memorial services were held in town...with the main one at the Von Braun Convention Center. Here's a clip of some of the service (note...very touching moment at the 7:15 mark)...



In the years after the tornado, many changes have taken place to ensure that life-saving information can be received in a timely matter. Bob Baron, then the chief meteorologist at WAFF-TV 48 that night, retired from the television business & began a company called Baron's Services....which specializes in weather tools designed with weather safety & user friendliness in mind.

Radar technology, which was marginal at best in 1989, has improved with the introduction of doppler radar. With doppler radar tornado warning times have increased from less than 10 minutes to close to 20 minutes. The radar allows meteorologists to see wind fields inside the storm for rotation. In the next few years, Baron Services will be upgrading the current radars at the National Weather Service across the country to dual pole technology...which sends two beams into a storm instead of one. This certainly aids in looking at hail size in a storm. While doppler doesn't catch every tornado, it does not miss the big ones.

After the tornado Madison County EMA began looking at improving the outdoor siren system. Most of the 20 or so sirens in place in 1989 were retired & new sirens were installed in 1993. Today, Madison County's siren system consists of over 120 sirens. Hopefully, in the future, EMA will look to going to a phasing siren system as to not warn an entire county for a tornado that only affects a small portion of the county. Nevertheless...it is nice to have the system in place.

A memorial has been built at the intersection of Airport Road & Whitesburg Drive in honor of the 21 killed on that day. While most of the area was rebuilt...many scars of the tornado still remain. Some trees in the area are still sheared off...& many of the trees at Huntsville Golf Course were taken out by the tornado.

Jones Valley Elementary School was rebuilt to a much stronger standard. While no building is 100% secure, another tornado like that of November 15 will likely not damage the school as bad.

The emergency services on that day did a spectacular job. While some errors were still made the lesson learned in the 1974 tornado really helped in this tragedy. Those mistakes were fixed in the latest plan...& updated with potential for an emergency from terrorism after 9/11. The system was tested yet again during the Lee High School Bus crash on November 20, 2006. Four students were killed & many more injured when a school bus crashed & fell over a bridge on I-565 downtown. Huntsville again stepped up in a very tragic situation. Once again...they did a flawless job.

Huntsville has survived several near misses since 1989. Including the Super Tuesday Outbreak in 2008, April 7, 2006 as a large tornado was reported again at Airport Rd. & Memorial Parkway (this time there was no tornado), the 1995 Anderson Hills Tornado north of Huntsville...& other large F4 & F5 tornadoes in the state including the F5 in Birmingham in 1998 & The Enterprise tornado in 2007.

No technology, not even the best ever designed, can stop a tornado of the magnitude of the 1989 Huntsville tornado. However...getting prepared for a strike & the warning times have increased to be better prepared. Warnings are provided to do just that...warn. But ultimately how you respond to the warning could be the difference between life and death. Warnings are not designed to scare or to interrupt your day...but to warn you of impending danger. Get your family a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert. Take all Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings seriously...& take cover if your area is in the warning. While it may be inconvenient...it could save your life. While living in Alabama is great...severe weather is a part of living here. Protect yourself in your family...it just may save your life...next time.

November 15, 1989 Huntsville Tornado - A Look Back - Part 3

As the tornado develops, may television views were watching WAAY-TV 31 as weatherman Gary Dobbs was providing severe weather cut-ins throughout the afternoon. Wall-to-wall tornado coverage was non-exsistant in the 1980s. This video includes a live cut-in as Gary Dobbs receives the frist report of the tornado one the ground...



As the tornado crosses Memorial Parkway & heads up Airport Road cars are being tossed like toys. Several of those killed were in cars. Severe damage occurred at Country Club Apartments. The tornado continued up Airport Road & completely leveled business like Gates Cleaners. Damage was also reported at Crestwood Medical Center as well as the Winn Dixie (now the Fresh Market). These buildings mostly survived the tornado...& no injuries occurred at these locations.

The businesses on the southside of Airport Road was not as fortunate...as only a couple of buildings actually withstood the tornado.

The tornado killed several motorists at one of Huntsville's busiest & more wreck-prone intersections...Airport Road & Whitesburg Drive. Some stopped at the traffic light with nowhere to go as the tornado struck.

The tornado continued up Garth Mountain & briefly affected the new Carl Jones Pkwy. before heading to a wooded area on Garth Mountain.

Back at Jones Valley Elementary School...kinds & adults were in the basement as the weather radio alarmed for the Tornado Warning. They rush quickly to get underneath the stairs leading to the basement. Seconds later...the tornado bears down on the school. Kids are screaming...& one was literally being sucked out by the tornado as one of the painters grabbed onto them just in time. The two-story school...built mostly of bricks, was being leveled by the tornado. The second floor...completely wiped away in seconds. The students would have been killed by falling steel & concrete if they would have taken shelter in the hallway.

As the tornado passes, rescuers feared the worst looking at the school. However, the quick actions taken at the last second...& advice from the principal, had the kids trapped in the basement, but all alive. After several hours, the kids were removed from the rubble...extremely shaken but alive.

The tornado continued northeast into mostly rural Madison County. In fact the damage path got over one mile wide in places at the storm reached U.S. 72 east of Huntsville. Shortly thereafter, 18 miles from where the tornado first touched down...it dissipated.

Scenes & stories, including eyewitness accounts from a techer at the school...





The end result was mind-boggling...this one tornado caused over $100 million in damage. The damage, which only occurred in about a 12-square mile area, was the third costliest natural disaster in the U.S. in 1989...exceeded only by the San Francisco Earthquake & Hurricane Hugo. 21 people lost their lives...& 463 were injured. 259 homes were destroyed...along with 80 businesses. Two schools were destroyed...including Jones Valley Elementary School.

Rescuers were fast with a huge challenge. Since the tornado struck right at sundown they will be doing rescues at dark. At the same time the cold front, which wrecked all of the havoc, would be passing through. This would bring near-freezing temperatures & stiff northwest winds for the overnight...& snow was expected the next day. However...even through a disaster that nobody would ever be able to wrap their hands around...they proved they were ready to answer the call. The city of Huntsville, permanently scarred from the tragic events, would be ready to pick themselves off from underneath all the rubble, brush themselves off, & make Huntsville an even better city in the end.

Huntsville was there to help those areas affected by Hurricane Hugo in the Carolinas in September...and those in northern California during the earthquake in October. Now those areas...still picking up the pieces, would be there for Huntsville during their tragedy.

In the fourth & final part Monday Night...we will look at some of the rescue efforts & the memorial service. We'll look at some of the changes the city since that day, & I'll have a commentary...while the possibility is always there & there is no way to stop the damage...we now have better warning systems & forecasting tools to at least give extra precious warning time ahead of the storm.

November 15, 1989 Huntsville Tornado - A Look Back - Part 2

Picking up from part 1...the squall line begins to infringe on the Alabama border counties near the Mississippi State line. In their path...that National weather Service begins to issue blanket Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for those counties. A Tornado Warning or two was needed...but even with those...only funnel clouds were observed. The storms were bringing winds well in excess of 70 mph & hail from golf ball to baseball in size.

As the storms approached a line from Taft, Tennessee to Decatur, Alabama more reports of funnel clouds, wind damage, & a hail reports were being reported.

Around 4 pm, the National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Morgan, Limestone, & Madison Counties including the city of Huntsville. The individual cell that was over Starkville a few hours before was still just ahead of the main line & moved out of southeast Limestone County & into western Madison County just south of the Huntsville International Airport. As the storm passed, forecasters at the weather service office at the airport noticed a wall cloud with a rain free base. The decision was made to not upgrade to a Tornado Warning for Madison County based on the lack of rotation.

The storm continued to the western part of Redstone Arsenal southwest of Huntsville. More reports from the Arsenal of the wall cloud with no rotation.

At around 4:25, meteorologists on the Arsenal began to observe the wall cloud showing weak rotation. The storm would begin to exit the Arsenal in the next 10 minutes and would affect the southwest part of the City of Huntsville.

Three important facts to consider at this point...

1. It is not known if that rotating wall cloud report was ever relayed to the NWS Office. My gut feeling is if it was a Tornado Warning would have been issued immediately.

2. Doppler Radar was still a couple of years away. Tornadoes, even large ones, were very hard to pick up on with the old conventional radar since we could not see the wind fields inside of storms at that time.

3. Due to limited access to the Arsenal from civilians & mountains on the far east side of the base, very few spotters, if any, had a look at what was going on.

Additional problems were beginning as Huntsville rush hour begins at 4 pm as folks come home from work and school.

A few miles east of the base, an Extended Daycare Program was taking place after school at Jones Valley Elementary School. 37 students, 5 teachers & 7 painters were in the school at the time. Principal Marilyn Dawson was listening to NOAA weather radio through the day...& set the radio in alert mode. She received the Tornado Watch earlier in the day...& received the Severe Thunderstorm Warning as she was leaving the school around 4:15. She suggested to the teachers, as a precaution, to take the children downstairs with a Tornado Watch & A Severe Thunderstorm Warning already in effect.

Just after 4:35 pm, just as the storm is exiting the arsenal, it appears a funnel is touching down near the old Huntsville airport. The funnel grows stronger quickly was the storm crosses the Huntsville Golf Course & near the Armory just off Airport Road. As these reports get to the NWS Office, forecasters feverishly issued a formal Tornado Warning for Madison County including Huntsville...the warning was basically an early-day "tornado emergency". The tornado, which is now packing F4 winds in excess of 200 mph, will be crossing over Memorial Parkway at Airport Road & into a very heavily-populated business & residential area which included supermarkets, churches, one of two major Huntsville Hospitals, and in just minutes head directly for Jones Valley Elementary School. It's 4:37 pm...the nightmare, which happened to this city 15 years before, was about to begin again.

In part three, on the 20-year anniversary of the devastating tornado...the tornado slams into Huntsville. We'll look at the tornado, the aftermath, & video as it happened exactly 20 years ago.

November 15, 1989 Huntsville Tornado - A Look Back - Part 1

The date...November 15, 1989. The city...Huntsville, Alabama. One of America's great cities to live in. "The Rocket City"...one of NASA's major hubs. While it is a great place to live...the area is no stranger to the dangers of severe weather. Just 15 years earlier a massive tornado struck the city during the Super Outbreak of April 3-4, 1974. The memory of that horrible day still somewhat fresh in the minds of many who went through that terrible storm.

The day started out much like many others. Only difference...the day starts springlike. Warm & muggy with temperatures expected to soar into the 80s by afternoon thanks to afternoon heating. Many people consider a November day this warm a blessing...temperatures more than 20 degrees above normal. However...many who know weather also know temperatures like this is like being on a powder keg if a cold front infringes upon the area.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Birmingham & Huntsville, as well as the National Severe Storms Labratory (current day Storm Prediction Center) knew that this day could be that type of day. That morning the NSSL places much of Alabama into a high risk of severe weather as an unusually strong cold front approaches Alabama. Temperatures behind the front...more than 50 degrees cooler than temperatures in front. In fact snow chances were placed into the forecast for Huntsville the following day. The Birmingham office issued a very strongly worded statement..."MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POISED FOR ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA!"

Late into the morning, explosive thunderstorm development begins in north Mississippi as a cluster of supercells form in that part of the state. Around 12:30, the NSSL decides to place much of north Alabama under a Tornado Watch until 8 pm as storms move into north Alabama. Minutes later, the team of volunteer Skywarn Spotters are activated throughout Alabama as the table is set for a dangerous weather day.

Good news does begin to surface by early afternoon as the cluster of storms in Mississippi begin to become linear, in essence reducing the tornado threat somewhat...as well in the fact as only one tornado was reported in Mississippi. On the concern side...there were hints of individual cells firing on the southern flank of the line around Starkville, Mississippi moving northeast. The largest tornado threat would come out of those cells as they moved northeast.

National Weather Service begin to look at the timing of potential impacts on cities covered by the Huntsville Weather Service Office. The storms in Starkville would arrive in the Huntsville metro sometime between 4-5 pm...just in time for the afternoon rush hour...& right around the time of sunset.

Coming up in part two...Severe weather crosses Alabama...Many reports of severe thunderstorms & funnel clouds...but no tornado reports. Then the storms arrive in Huntsville as the clock hits 4:37 pm...

My Huntsville about.com Weekend Forecast

On the weather map...High pressure has moved in behind Tropical Storm Ida...& that will be in control for the weekend. If you liked last weekend...than you're going to love this weekend. High will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with plenty of sunshine. Looks like our next chance of rain will hold off until Monday or Tuesday of the upcoming work week.

My official Tennessee Valley weekend forecast...

For Friday...Sunny. High 68.
Friday Night...Clear skies. Low 48.
Saturday...Sunny. High 71.
Saturday Night...Clear skies. Low 49.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny. High 73.

Football forecast...

Alabama at Mississippi State (6:00 pm CT - Starkville, MS)...It will be clear with a kickoff temperature at or just below 60 degrees.

Auburn at Georgia (6:00 pm CT - Athens, GA)...It will be clear with a kickoff temperature in the mid 60s with temperatures falling quickly into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Jackson State at Alabama A&M (1:00 pm CT - Huntsville, AL)...It will be sunny & beautiful with a kickoff temperature in the upper 60s to near 70.

Last week's question...On what day does the Atlantic Hurricane Season End? The answer was C. November 30. It's rare...but occasionally we do get development into December...& even January. However...the water temperatures around the U.S. coastline usually will not support a landfalling tropical system.

A major weather event occurred in Huntsville twenty years ago on Sunday, November 15. What happened on that day?

A. Snowstorm
B. Tornado
C. Flood
D. Record cold

Have a great weekend everyone!!!

- James Payton
Huntsville about.com Forecaster
http://uahweather.blogspot.com
http://twitter.com/weatherjames

My Huntsville about.com Weekend Forecast

On the weather map...High pressure which has been in control of our weather this week will continue to do so through the upcoming weekend into the first part of the work week. Bright sunny skies with no chance of rain will be the rule. Highs will be just a shade above normal for this time of the year. Looking ahead our next rain chance looks to be showing up around Tuesday of next week. Get out & enjoy the great weather this weekend!

My official Tennessee Valley weekend forecast...

For Friday...Sunny. High 68.
Friday Night...Clear skies. Low 42.
Saturday...Sunny. High 71.
Saturday Night...Clear skies. Low 43.
Sunday...Sunny. High 73.

Football forecast...

LSU at Alabama (2:30 pm CT - Tuscaloosa, AL)...It will be sunny with a kickoff temperature around 70 degrees.

Furman at Auburn (12:30 pm CT - Auburn, LA)...Auburn's homecoming looks spectacular with sunny skies & a kickoff temperature in the upper 60s.

Alabama A&M at Prairie View A&M (2:00 pm CT - Prairie View, TX)...It will be sunny & beautiful in Texas as well with a kickoff temperature in the mid 70s.

Last week's question...True or false...In order for a rainbow to form, rain must be falling out of a cloud where the rainbow forms. The answer is false. In some occasions rainbows can form with just ice crystals in a cloud without rain. The sun reflects off those crystals just right, & a rainbow can form.

On what day does the Atlantic Hurricane Season End?

A. November 1
B. November 15
C. November 30
D. December 15

Have a great weekend everyone!!!

- James Payton
Huntsville about.com Forecaster
http://uahweather.blogspot.com
http://twitter.com/weatherjames